Actor strikewatch update

The possibility of a strike remains in Hollywood, as the Screen Actors Guild yesterday rejected the "final offer" from the producers' group AMPTP. The current contract expired at the end of June 30, although SAG did not strike and the producers did not lock out the actors. The producers had given their ultimatum, a "final offer" just before the contract lapsed. As expected, the proposal made no movement on the actors' key demands on DVD payments and new media.

On July 8, AFTRA, the sister actors' union, announced that is members had ratified a new contract with the producers, something SAG had campaigned heavily against. SAG is perceived to have less leverage now, although their spin is that the ratification percentage was unusually low (62.4% rather than >90%), and the vote included members of AFTRA who are not actors. The vote was also an indicator to SAG about the level of support for a possible strike authorization vote among its own members (which would require 75% voting yes), because about 40000 actors are members in both actor unions; the conclusion of the vote casts some doubt on SAG's ability to launch a strike.

Yesterday on July 10, SAG officially rejected the producers' final offer, as expected (and offered their own compromise in the form of a counterproposal, although technically the producers aren't even listening after their final offer). But all of Hollywood, including the producers and actors, is loathe to strike after weathering the recent WGA strike. California governor Arnold Schawzenegger and LA mayor Antonio Villaraigosa have openly offered their services as mediators. The producers have stated they are through with negotiating after giving their final offer-- SAG states it is ready to continue negotiating. The impasse may continue through the late summer, although if it continues until September, it may affect the Emmy Awards, which the producers would likely rather avoid; it would also delay the starting of production for Lost's Season 5.

Read more at Variety here and here and the NY Times here

Actors may still strike

The prospects have become increasingly poor for an easy resolution of the contract negotiations between the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and the producers group (AMPTP), which have reached their 35th day, and with current developments now look to last until at least mid-July. If the dispute is not resolved by late summer, the timely resumption of filming for Lost's Season 5 will be jeopardized.

Part of the problem is that SAG's sister union AFTRA has reached a tentative deal with the producers, a deal which now goes to vote with its general membership. The results won't be announced until July 8, more than a week after the June 30 expiration of the actors' contract. That also means SAG probably won't cut a deal before that announcement. More than 44000 actors hold cards in both unions, and SAG is lobbying heavily to have "their" actors vote no on the AFTRA deal: if the deal does not get a green light among its members, AFTRA may be forced to reluctantly rejoin SAG for joint bargaining for a better deal from the producers. It also means SAG is unlikely to go on strike before July 8. In fact, SAG has not yet made the significant leap of actually putting a strike authorization to vote among its members.

The producers are not staying still either. They have taken the extraordinary step to announce they will soon make the actors a "final offer", and offer which is likely to be made before June 30, and also likely to be ignored by SAG, at least until July 8 when they can evaluate their leverage after AFTRA's vote. However since the offer almost certainly will make no compromises on the various points SAG really wants, it looks like there will be a larger battle mid summer.

The next thing to watch for in the news is if SAG begins a strike authorization vote among its general membership, and whether or not it passes.

Read more at Variety.

(If you're just learning about this news, you can catch up with our summary here.)

July 2, 2008 Update: The contract has expired at the end of June 30 as expected. The actors have not struck, and the producers have not locked out the actors. Also as expected, the producers gave their "final offer" as promised, less than a day before the contract expired, an offer that reportedly made no movement on the main platforms of the actors. The rhetoric between SAG and AFTRA has been heating up regarding AFTRA's contract vote among its general membership, with big names such as Tom Hanks, Jack Nicholson, George Clooney recently offering their various opinions. About half of AFTRA members also are in SAG, and SAG has been campaigning for these dual card holders to vote down the contract. The entire industry is still awaiting these results, which should be known early next week on July 8. The vote may be used by SAG to help guess if its own members have the will to pass a strike authorization. If the AFTRA contract vote passes, SAG will find itself without enough support among actors for its views, and may be forced to compromise with the producers. If the AFTRA vote fails however, SAG will have more leverage with the producers with a now-realistic option to strike in its bargaining arsenal. Stay tuned for July 8.

July 9, 2008 update: It was announced yesterday that AFTRA members ratified the contract. SAG is perceived to have less leverage now, although they are spinning the story to point out that the ratification percentage was unusually low (62.4% rather than >90%), and the vote included members of AFTRA who are not actors. No one knows how the news will play out, but now the ball is in SAG's court to comment on the AMPTP's "final offer", which we may hear in two days on Thursday, when talks resume. Read more at Variety here, and also read their commentary here explaining how the timing of the Writer's strike affected SAG, back when the industry was wondering if the writers would wait until now to strike simultaneously with the actors.

Eyes wide shut: Is another strike possible?

Most fans are blithely ignoring the possibility that the prospects for a normal Season 5 may be in jeopardy. In anticipation of the April 24 resumption of the post-WGA-strike episodes of Lost Season 4 in one week, and the recent news that ABC Chief Stephen McPherson has green-lighted the Lost team's request for an additional hour for this installment, most fans are eagerly gearing up to consume more of Lost. Why the worry?

On June 30, the major producer's film-primetime contract with the two actors unions expires. If a new contract isn't signed by that date, the actors are free to strike, and unlike the writers, an actor strike would end production immediately. If a strike does happen this summer, it could potentially impact Lost Season 5, which otherwise would begin filming in the mid August...

In short, that's the scary part, that we might be in for a strike all over again. We don't know if a strike will really happen, but after what happened with the WGA, the fans should know that the long dance to the culmination of this contract has recently begun. Today will mark the third day of official negotiations between Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and producers.

What are the chances for a strike? Well first of all Lost is a SAG production, not AFTRA. The two actors unions were going to negotiate together for added leverage but have a history of bad blood and distrust, and just about 2 weeks ago, AFTRA surprised SAG with a sudden divorce. (link) And just over a week ago, Disney's Bob Iger and News Corp's Peter Chernin ended informal talks with SAG. (link) In case you hadn't paid attention during the last strike, these are the two individuals who single-handedly revived the hopelessly-stalled talks with the writers (WGA) immediately after the directors union (DGA) had inked a deal, and thereby started the chain of events that ultimately brought Lost back to you.

Yeah those guys. And they just essentially gave up on the actors. Thus only two days ago, formal negotiations began between the producers and SAG. (link). The good news is that thus far, both parties are avoiding the public mudslinging that made the writers' talks so spiteful and unproductive. In fact they've made joint announcements that are essentially a news blackout: "Screen Actors Guild and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers held a full day of meetings today and exchanged proposals. We will meet again tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. We have no further comment at this time."(link) Press releases don't get drier than that!

The bad news is that SAG has been publicly unsatisfied with the terms of the recent DGA and WGA deals, a dissatisfaction that Iger and Chernin were apparently unable to budge. SAG head Alan Rosenberg said as much in a letter to his membership (link), although he has been meticulous in denying that he "wants" a strike. The clock is ticking because in two weeks, AFTRA begins its negotiations separately-- and since they are known (for various reasons we won't get into here) to accept more lenient terms than SAG, they may reach an agreement relatively soon after that date. If that happens and SAG doesn't have a contract and later goes on strike, AFTRA could move in on some SAG territory, especially on the digital frontier. That possibility might discourage SAG from striking. But just yesterday, AFTRA also shuffled its leadership in a new vote with five new "dissident" board members who want a more SAG-like stance, so that AFTRA may negotiate harder than previously guessed (link). In that case a return to joint bargaining with SAG and even a joint strike is not absolutely out of the question. The repercussions of the AFTRA board shuffle are not yet clear.

So all in all, nobody wants a strike. But SAG has long been made it clear that it considers the current contract renewal to be a watershed moment, that it wants a revolution in the new media side, and has hinted strongly that using the recent WGA and DGA deals as templates for their own deal may not be adequate. And if the producers don't cave, that means a strike, and a delay to Lost Season 5. Let's hope it doesn't play out that way.


UPDATE 1 (Thurs Apr 24): Negotiations have been extended a week until Fri May 2. (link)

Carlton: Five more episodes

The WGA strike is officially over. The 48 hour formal vote ended today with a 92.5% mandate. See industry source Daily Variety for full details.

In immediate fallout, Lost executive producer Carlton Cuse met with his bosses at ABC about continuing Season 4, and reported the results of that meeting with TV Guide's Ausiello in an exclusive interview.

The two main points from that interview:
1) The aim is to produce FIVE more episodes of Season 4. This is three fewer than the eight scheduled before the strike occurred; the season's total will be 13 eps.
2) The entire order of 48 episodes for Seasons 4-5-6 will still be delivered-- that leaves 35 episodes to be split between Seasons 5-6.

In other words:
Season 4 is to be re-written to end with the same storyline elements as previously written, but in only 5 episodes. The three "lost" Lost episodes will somehow fill in the story arc of the remaining last two seasons.

Another lesser point is that there will be at least a 4 week hiatus between the broadcast of 4x08 and the new 4x09. Note that this may push the final episode of the season beyond the end of the Nielsen May sweeps period, so we may have been lucky to get even five eps. Read the rest of this fascinating interview here.

Damon comments on strike result

Good ol DocArzt dropped us a friendly line that Kristin Dos Santos of E! Online had a column interviewing scads of showrunners and similar ilk in the wake of the (almost) end of the WGA strike.

Here's the quote she received from Lost's Damon Lindelof:

"Indeed, it would appear that we are in the endgame of the strike. Personally, I couldn't be more psyched to be part of this union. Like any negotiation, some parts suck and some parts surpassed my wildest expectations for what we could accomplish, but most of all I'm left with a feeling of pride.


"As for Lost (pending the actual lifting of the strike, which we vote for on Tuesday), a game plan should begin to manifest by the end of the week. All I can say is that Carlton and I and the rest of the writers have every intention of making sure you guys get more episodes this season beyond the eight already completed. How many and how they will be aired is a conversation we'll be having with our bosses, but as soon as we've got a plan, we'll tell the fans first."

Read her article here for some additional information about Lost

WGA: Carlton back to work on Monday

WGA show-runners will report back to work Monday, according to Patric Verrone, WGA West chief, at a special press conference held today at WGA West headquarters in LA. (link) This action is in advance of a 48-hour special membership vote to be conducted Monday and Tuesday to end the strike action. That vote is itself in advance of a 10-hour membership vote to ratify the new writers contract.

But the bottom line for Lost fans, WGA negotiating board member and Lost show-runner Carlton Cuse will likely be among the show-runners returning to work tomorrow. So we'll await word from ABC's building 23 at the Disney lot tomorrow, as we assume he'll begin work reassembling the film crew and cast in Hawaii, and the post-production and writing teams in Los Angeles.

WGA Leaders to Members: Strike Must End Now

"We believe that continuing to strike now will not bring sufficient gains to outweigh the potential risks and that the time has come to accept this contract and settle the strike," wrote WGA West chief Paul Verrone and WGA East chief Michael Winship.

With such words the leadership of the WGA have mass-emailed their members, as we predicted, in advance of the general membership meeting later today discuss the terms of the new draft contract.

This draft contract came about through informal talks of the chiefs with Disney's Bob Iger and News Corp's Peter Chernin, as we reported last week.

The e-mail is undoubtedly intended to quell opposition from within their own ranks, such as from a minority of the 300 strike captains who were shown the deal yesterday, as well as outspoken hardliner and WGA board member Phil Alden Robinson, who are uncomfortable in particular about the roughly 2-3 week window for Internet streaming without compensation to scribes-- this point may be a deal-breaker to some members because conventional wisdom is that the bulk of streaming revenue comes within 24 hours of the initial broadcast. However some terms of the deal are better than the DGA's draft deal: In the 3rd year of the contract, compensation (aka "residuals") of 2% of the streaming revenue.

Despite such possible discontent, industry rumors overwhelmingly seem to indicate that the contract will overall be a quick and easy sell to a strike-weary membership. The strike captains have the authority to end the strike at any point, so this may well happen in advance of the formal full-membership vote by mail. We'll keep you in touch as we hear more news about ABC possibly reassembling the Lost film crew and cast over in Hawaii.

SAT NIGHT UPDATE: Both East and West coast meetings apparently went well. (e.g. see here for a blow-by-blow which includes the WGA email.) There will be a special 48 hour vote to end the strike. Then there will be a "quick" 10 day voting process for the membership to OK the contract, although a "back to work" order might well be issued during that time pending the eventual result, as early as this Wednesday. Read more details at Digitalmedialaw blog and over at Daily Variety. The bottom line? There will almost certainly be more episodes of Lost Season 4. We think about 4-6 episodes more, depending on ABC extending the viewing season.
SUN MORNING UPDATE: A press conference is scheduled at WGA West at noon. (link)

Michael Eisner speaks on strike

Former Disney CEO (and current CNBC host) Michael Eisner opined today that the WGA strike was essentially over (link), meaning that the remaining steps to ending the strike were a mere formality. He said: "It's over. They made the deal, they shook hands on the deal. It's going, on Saturday, to the writers. A deal has been made. They'll be back to work very soon... I know it's over."

To clarify, the strike isn't over until it's over. This means the scheduled Saturday general membership meeting for WGA East and WGA West will still happen-- this will be a townhall-style event to explain the draft contract to the members in order to gauge their opinion during a live meeting. The vote won't occur then-- if all goes well on Saturday, all of the members then will then need to formally vote. I'm not sure how it works, but I'm guessing it will be a relatively time-consuming process conducted through the postal mail.

So what Eisner is saying is that in his opinion, the WGA negotiators are very happy with the terms of the draft deal, and that by extension, the membership are almost certain take the deal with open arms. Eisner is likely to have some inside word on the deal, but the entire world will have a better idea if he was right after the WGA's live meetings Saturday. If these go well, the WGA leadership is likely to email all of their members encouraging them to vote for the deal when ballots come in the mail, a recommendation that will carry much weight. Therefore Saturday's result, if positive, will be interpreted as a de facto done-deal.

Then, the studios might begin re-assembling their various film crews in anticipation of the formal vote result. Yesterday, EW noted that this process might take until early March (link), and in the cases of many series will force story arc rewrites to accommodate a shorter season. An Ugly Betty writer commented, "We would definitely need to change storylines... I know where we're going to end up, but there's going to have to be some major readjustment to get there."

The same may be very well true for Lost, and as we commented last weekend (link), the number of recovered episodes will also depend on whether ABC extends the television season-- something almost unheard of, but possible in a season marred by a strike. We can predict the fan outcry over anything less than the full 8 remaining episodes, but that eventuality appears to be almost certainly unlikely.

And to play doomsayer, don't count on the Season 5 just yet, because the WGA deal may not be good enough for the actor's union SAG, which may have loftier goals for New Media residuals than the WGA. And SAG, unlike the writers, could immediately halt Hollywood on the first day of any strike after this coming June. See Daily Variety's article for more on this.

Season IV: A New Hope

Red Five standing by... or make it the Oceanic Six. Widespread industry rumors have it that the writer's guild may be on the verge of a breakthrough settlement to end their strike, possibly in time to save part of the remaining unfilmed half of Lost Season 4.

If you've really been under a rock, we noted back in October that the writers were about to go on strike, halting the production of scripted Hollywood TV, including halting the filming of Lost Season 4 after episode 8 of a planned 16, a strike that has now lasted three months. And 2 weeks ago we commented on the tentative agreement the director's guild made with the producers about 2 weeks ago here. The progress the directors made put the negotiators for the writers under the gun to make similar progress.

This pressure led to two big guns from the writers (John Bowman, head of the negotiating committee, and the WGA West head honcho David Young) informally meeting with two big producers (News Corp's Peter Chernin and Bob Iger, CEO of Disney which owns ABC and by extension Lost). There was a media blackout that started to break today, with good news.

The Hollywood Reporter reported that these informal conversations resulted in monumental breakthroughs that could result in official negotiations to finalize a settlement soon, perhaps in the next week. The sticking points had to do with payment for rebroadcasts in "new media" such as Internet streams and downloads.

If this actually results in the WGA authorizing filmings to resume, it may mean the salvage of part of episodes 9-16 of Lost if the cast and crew can be reassembled hastily over in Hawaii. Probably all eight episodes cannot be saved at this late date, but that's speculation upon speculation for now, and also dependent on whether ABC extends its general television season this year-- if it doesn't, there might be as few as 4 new episodes. Any shortening of Season 4's planned arc of 16 episodes provides ample speculative ground for how the storyline arc might be re-written with respect to any planned season finale, as well as the segue into the 32 previously-planned episodes of the final two seasons 5-6. So sit tight and follow the entertainment news closely because it just might mean a second installment of several more episodes of Season 4 for Lost fans.

MON FEB 4 NEWS:
See also DocArzt's blog for the debunking of a recent rumor that Lost has already resumed filming. However the facts suggest that some of Lost's laid-off crew and equipment may be tied up in another production for all of February.

UDPATE TUES FEB 5: See Daily Variety for current status. They report a draft contract might be submitted to the WGA leadership as early as Friday. They also report here that the West branch of WGA has scheduled a general membership meeting this Saturday, presumably to gauge the likelihood of the general ratification of any draft deal--this scheduled meeting is one of the most direct evidence so far that the strike is in a possible endgame. Addition: The WGA East has also scheduled a meeting the same day.

What the DGA might mean for Season 4

The hot news in the entertainment world is that the Directors Guild of America (DGA) has just signed a tentative contract with the producer's group (AMPTP), the same group the Writer's Guild (WGA) is currently striking against. The DGA has a reputation for negotiating early (their contract doesn't expire until early summer), and also a reputation for getting what they want.

One line of conventional wisdom is that the WGA and the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) will use this agreement as a template for their own negotiations. The WGA's ranks are not impervious during the course of this strike, and a quick agreement based on the DGA contract will be a likely demand of much of the membership. For now, SAG, which has historically been more friendly with the WGA, is also likely going to adopt a wait-and-see game, as their contract expiration (and possible strike date) isn't until June.

As for Lost, I have recently had the feeling since the Christmas season came and went without a writer's deal that the second half of Season 4 would likely be scrapped for the season. Hiring back the laid-off film and post-production crew becomes more logistically difficult the longer the work stoppage lasts. However if the WGA can bootstrap their own deal based on the DGA's template within this month, the finishing of the second half of Lost Season 4 might be an outside possibility. Remember that even the DGA's deal is only preliminary, and has not been put to vote by either their executive board or general membership. Further if the WGA does not want to back off its initial demands (for example, see Marketwatch), the writers' goal would probably be to extend the strike until June when SAG could potentially join them in a truly industry-stopping dual strike. In that case, we might not see new episodes of Lost until Fall 2009. But if you're a television fan, remember that (if the current pilot-season structure is preserved) this would further mean that we may not see any newly minted television series filmed until 2009, and not actually broadcast until 2010.

For more information see: see the DGA's announcement, and detailed articles by The Washington Post and industry journal Variety, as well as Google News.)

UPDATE: As expected, talks between writers and producers may be kickstarted next week, when they will be meeting again. Read more at Variety. Apparently the WGA leadership is now under immense pressure to settle from different factions among its own membership. Is the posturing and spiteful atmosphere that characterized the previous negotiations finally going to give way to actual. . . negotiating? Next week will tell.

The WGA strike, updates and more.

Well, as you have probably heard by now, the WGA is striking. And everyone everywhere is blogging and reporting on it. So I'm going to do a short round up of some of the stuff the casual Lost fan needs to know. I'd highly suggest checking out the Variety page linked to at the bottom of this blog, it will keep you up to date on the strike situation. Myself and Santa are also keeping the Lostpedia main page news updated with the latest whether it regards Lost directly or not so keep checking back there as well.

Now to cover a bit of the stuff the fans want to know. This is a quick roundup on Lost's current situation with a list of links at the bottom that will let you know everything else you need to know.

First off, there are a lot of angry fans saying that "if this causes Lost to be canceled then....." Stop! Lost will not get canceled because of this strike. I could list off the numerous reasons but I will let Gregg Nations handle it:

"Get A Klugh, the scenario you wrote won't happen. Lost is not a show that is in danger of being cancelled. There is a contract for the next 48 episodes, so they'll be completed no matter what. If there is a show on the bubble, like say Viva Laughlin if it hadn't already been cancelled, then the strike could have made that decision an easy one to simply cancel it. It's going to be a case-by-case basis."

Gregg continued on to say that Lost is currently filming episode 8 (which has been confirmed by numerous sources. And Lost is still shooting today despite it's writers striking. How much longer they will be filming for it anyone's guess. Michael Emerson did a recent interview in which he stated:

"And if the writers walk, there's no one to polish scripts or do rewrites or anything like that. "Lost" would shut down fairly quickly. I'm just guessing, but I think "Lost" could go eight or 10 days after a strike. Then we'd all have to go home I guess. "

Lost still has some kick in them, at least for a little while. The interview with Emerson even revealed something that we've been waiting to hear. They have actually be shooting the mobisodes and those are still set to be revealed even as the strike wears on.

"Those who are really eager for the new season can expect to see mobisodes, or mobile phone episodes, in the near future. In the 13 weeks leading up to the premiere the network will release a mobisode a week, "which are sort of like lost scenes," explained Emerson. They are about two or three minutes long, and you can download them on phones and ABC.com."

So what does the average Lost fan have left to look forward to? Well, more than you might think. The mobisodes are set to be released, who knows when though, the Season 3 dvds are going to be released in North America come December. We've also got the video game which is supposed to be released in the first quarter of 2008. And the writers strike could last for 4 months max and still have no effect on Season 4. Lost fans do have some breathing room and stuff to keep them busy. However I'd still suggest keeping yourself informed on the strike.

Here are some links you might find interesting:

• A blog on how the strike will affect Lost
• Interview with Michael Emerson on the WGA strike
• Brian K Vaughan on the writer's strike
• Gregg Nation's comments on the whole thing
• Variety's WGA strike Hot Topic Page
• Damon Lindelof on the strike
• United Hollywood: Unofficial blog of WGA strike captains

11th Hour WGA Mediation

A final 11th hour negotiating session between the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and the producers group AMPTP has been scheduled for Sunday morning, one day before the commencement of the strike on Monday. The negotiations were arranged at the request of Juan Carlos Gonzalez, the mediator from the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service that had been called in last week by the US government. The main sticking point that neither side has budged a micrometer on is still the WGA's position to double their DVD residuals, although new media (Internet streaming, downloads etc.) residuals and contract jurisdiction are also on the table. Meanwhile, Lost continues to film normally today, and script supervisor Gregg Nations recently noted at thefuselage.com here that it is episode 8 of Season 4 being filmed, and that because this script has been finished, production on this episode will likely continue to completion even in the event of a strike.

Variety Hot Topic: WGA Strike

Just a quick note on this day before the WGA contract expires.

Variety.com, which I recently suggested as a good source of current news on the WGA situation, has created a convenient "Hot Topic" page to track all news about the possible strike.

So see Variety's WGA Strike Hot Topic page for quick updates in the coming days.


THURSDAY NOV 1 UPDATE: Strike starting next Monday possible (Variety) In short, Carlton Cuse and the rest of the union's negotiating committee recommended a strike to the leadership of the union. Most guesses are that it will start Monday. The general membership of the WGA has been advised by the WGA strike captains to take any of their personal belongings home from the workplace.

FRIDAY NOV 2 UPDATE1: The WGA leadership has scheduled an announcement regarding a possible strike today at 1:30pm at WGA West headquarters in Los Angeles. Click the Variety Hot Topic link above for updates as they come.

FRIDAY NOV 2 UPDATE 2: The WGA leadership has confirmed that it is calling for a strike beginning Monday November 5, as expected. Further negotiations are not scheduled this weekend prior to the commencement of the strike.

WGA Weekend Update

UPDATE 1:
I've been trying to keep up with the prospects for a writer's strike by the WGA, and one of the best sources for me has been Variety.com. If you don't know what we're talking about here, see my recent blog post for a summary of how this might affect Lost.

Last Thursday, the WGA's negotiations with the suits of the AMPTP (Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers) did not seem to be going well, with predictable acrimony in the week leading up to the expiration of the current contract (link). The WGA cannot budge from its marquee demand of DVD residuals, but the producer are not signaling any inclination to budge. A few days earlier, there was an interesting article about one point that WGA may be willing to back off on, which is jurisdiction over reality shows, which have been one mainstay of non-WGA television fare. (link)

Also something interesting is that Variety had an article about the strike, but dedicated to Lost. (link) Of course they note that ABC is planning to broadcast the entirety of Season 4 consecutively, and that Carlton Cuse is one of the 17 members of the WGA negotiating committee. What I didn't know is that Lost apparently has a highlighted central position in the industry with respect to these issues. Variety writes:

"Interestingly, "Lost" exec producer Carlton Cuse is one of the 17 members of the Writers Guild's contract negotiating committee, though no one is conspiratorial enough to suggest he could have plotted it this way all along. But it's probably not a coincidence that at a time when compensating writers for their work in the digital realm is one of the points of major contention between WGA and the AMPTP, "Lost" is the only TV production show to come to terms with the WGA, DGA and SAG on production of the "Lost Video Diaries" designed for mobile phones and Web plays."

And the most recent news? Friday was the first day that actual negotiating was attempted, rather than each side simply pushing their proposals (WGA has 26 proposals). However progress was small to none, to the extent that both sides decided to take a holiday: They won't come back to the bargaining table at WGA West headquarters until Tuesday, only one day before the expiration of the current contract. And things look dark enough that a federal labor mediator (from the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service) will be present. (link)

There's also an interesting article where the DGA (directors guild) aren't happy about the WGA stepping on their toes. In other words, if the WGA strikes, the directors are still on DGA contract and are required to continue working-- on work not covered by the WGA. However this is a gray area for dual citizens: dual union cardholders such as show runners, who are hyphenate writer-directors. The article notes that four show runners are on the WGA negotiating committee, including Lost's own Carlton Cuse. The work in question includes minor script adjustments during filming, such as re-assigning lines to different cast members, or even changes in stage direction. According to Gregg Nations in my previous blog entry, crossing the picket line as a director won't be an issue for Carlton since Lost would simply shut down immediately. The article also mentions a possible spat with the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees (IATSE). Yow. Anyways read more here.

The lesson? Don't rely on Lost bloggers for WGA news... Read it from their source-- read Variety.com over the next few days to keep up with detailed developments in this news as we approach next Wednesday and beyond.

If you know of any other good industry news sources, please post them below.

Lost's Writing on the Wall?

UPDATE 2:

Last Friday, there was news from Hollywood that should have Lost fans concerned. The membership of the Writers Guild of America (WGA) authorized a strike. The mandate to authorize was strong, with 90.3% of votes, and over 5,500 of 12,000 members (of this normally low-turnout union) voting.

So why is this happening now, and what does it have to do with Lost?

It turns out that all the folks who make the TV and film you watch possible, including writers, directors, and actors, are represented by unions, who have contracts with the producers, specifically the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP). The WGA contract expires on Halloween-- hence the current possibility of a strike as a new contract is negotiated. If you were around during the last WGA strike in 1988, you know how bad TV and film can get during these strikes.

But strike authorization is sort of a bargaining tool in itself: it gives union leadership a trigger to pull, and the negotiators for the other side (AMPTP) know it. However it does not mean a strike is inevitable.

Gregg Nations, Lost's script coordinator had this to say about what this strike authorization means in his post at the official Fuselage forums:

"What the 90% strike authorization does is hopefully scared the producers into realizing that the writers mean business. There is no fooling around. There's going to be harsh, pointed criticism from each side, bad feelings are going to come out of it like crazy, and then maybe there doesn't have to be a strike. It's not set in stone that writers walk out on Nov. 1 -- but if things don't look good to the negotiating committee, then they can call for a strike any time after that.

"With such a high voter turnout and a high percentage voting yes, maybe this means nothing will happen. If the vote had only been say 50% yes, then the producers would've walked all over the writers. As it is now, that ain't gonna happen. But it is all about money, and the big companies don't like parting with it, so it's still going to be a battle."

It gets hairier though. The Directors Guild of America (DGA) and Screen Actors Guild (SAG) contracts also expire soon, in April-June 2008. The WGA may decide to continue working until then, when potentially all three unions could strike simultaneously for combined leverage, essentially bringing the Hollywood machine to a standstill: no writers, directors, or actors.

But besides June is so far away that Lost Season 4 is safe right?

We don't know. Potentially the writers could strike as soon as their contract expires, the day after Halloween.

Given that Lost has been filming Season 4 since late August, that means that by November 1, the film crew would have finished about six or seven episodes, and the writers might be done with about three more. (According to Jorge Garcia's post here, they are currently filming 4.06). That makes a ballpark figure of ten episodes of the scheduled sixteen before Lost must halt filming, if filming continues without WGA workers, and 6 or 7 if not. Lost's stellar stable of writers includes stalwarts such as Adam Horowitz, Edward Kitsis, and Elizabeth Sarnoff, and prominent newcomers such as Brian K. Vaughan. You have to remember that quite a few of the writing assistants on Lost, and script editors (such as Gregg Nations or Patti Dalzell) are also part of the WGA, and much of this work is performed during actual filming. And Lost's showrunners Damon & Carlton-- they are WGA members and would be required to strike too. For those of you hoping the Lost writing team was being forced into this, think again. That's not how the film industry works.

Again, Gregg Nations explains in another post at the Fuselage:

"If there is a strike, we will shut down immediately. Carlton is on the negotiating committee for the WGA, and there is no way that any of the writers would cross a picket line. We will not bank episodes or scripts. Depending on how many episodes are completed before a strike were to happen, it would be up to ABC to decide how to air them.

"Personally, I think the WGA is in a very good bargaining position, and if there is a strike, it's the producers and studios who are being the uncompromising ones. This could be a contentious round of discussions and you never know how things will work out. Hopefully it'll all go smoothly and it won't be an issue."

Scripts are simply "not in the can" through to the end of the season, even if the overall storyline is already mapped out. There are WGA-related jobs that are required even during filming. Filming of Season 4 simply cannot continue without the writers, and if you believe otherwise, you are gravely misinformed.

Also, notice that Gregg Nations mentioned that Carlton is actually on the negotiating committee for the WGA. What does that mean for the average Lost fan? Two things. First, Carlton is in fact central to the leadership machinery of the union that could initiate a strike. Second, Carlton may be required to stay in Los Angeles to deal with negotiations, tethering him from making his frequent trips to Hawaii as the "on-the-ground" showrunner for Lost. This work may dilute any hopes that while Carlton and Damon would have to halt all work covered by the WGA, they could in theory continue as executive producers of the show.

Assuming the worst case, Lost might halt production at about ten episodes, or even less if production halts immediately. Then ABC is presented with an unenviable choice: Do they broadcast those ten? This would mean reneging on their promise to eliminate a mid-season hiatus, and in their minds would risk the entire Lost franchise because of low ratings after the hiatus, as had occurred in Season 3. But the network will be desperate to show anything to keep the company running. This also means a random cliffhanger, because the mid-season storyline arc won't account for a strike-based hiatus. Or instead, they can find enough "replacement fare" to cover themselves until the strike is resolved, then broadcast Season 4 all sixteen episodes in a row. Replacement fare? I'm talking R&R: Reruns and Reality shows, because the latter doesn't require writers, or even actors for that matter. For the record, in that case I'm hoping ABC takes the pre-canned Daybreak off the archive shelf, a series that improved greatly after the clumsy and draining pilot episode, and could deserve another chance.

As mentioned above, SAG (Screen Actors Guild) and DGA (Directors Guild of America) are also set to strike. Their contracts expire in summer 2008 they have the potential to be a killer to the TV industry, especially if WGA waits until then to strike for a devastating triple-strike. In that case, Season 4 will be safe, finished broadcasting, and re-run fodder for us fans. But what a triple strike would likely be aiming at is the networks' jugular of the Fall 2008 sweeps period, meaning Lost Season 5 won't start filming until perhaps 2009, pushing Lost's end date back one year to 2011.

Gregg Nation comments:

"I'm really not sure how ABC would handle episodes completed and 'in the can.' They may wait to see how long a strike would last. Or they could decide to burn them off and then have another mini-hiatus until after the strike is over and production is back in the swing of things. ABC will be facing that issue with all their shows if a strike happens."

Now these are the gloom and doom cases of the effects of various strikes on Lost. There are reasons to think the worst case isn't coming.

According to the Hollywood Reporter, the DGA usually negotiates its contracts many months before the previous one expires. Their contract expires in June 2008, but they may even begin negotiations this November, and may even work something out. Then the WGA may hesitate to force a strike when the DGA is sitting happy with a new contract.

Some more background. First off, what are the unions striking for? Money of course, a type called "residuals", which means payment (in addition to the salary for the original work) for each rebroadcast of the material, including cable, foreign, DVDs, as well as digital streaming and downloads.

The studios don't want to pay residuals to writers until they have recouped their overhead costs, and additionally don't want to pay the apparently large jump in figures requested for DVD sale residuals. If the producers don't budge, then the best bet for the unions is the crippling leverage of a triple strike in June 2008, which would mean, at least, Season 4 would be safe. Now you may be thinking this is a selfish act by the writers, they just want more money, right? Wrong. An example that is easy to think about and understand is that when you walk into a store and buy a book, the author gets 15% or something around that. When you buy a DVD, the writers only get about $0.04 off each DVD sale. Seem fair to you? They aren't stealing money from you the viewer. New technology is changing the way the media industry makes money. The writers are asking for their fair share from the uber-rich media conglomerates; in the case of Lost, this means Disney, and we all know how unfathomly rich they already are. I'm on Carlton's side here.

Confusion often arises when we mention that producers are fighting the writers in this labor dispute. "But wait", you say "Carlton and Damon are both producers and writers." Yes, but no. I'll give you another quote by Gregg Nations that helps clarify this:

"As far as Carlton and Damon being writers and producers and caught in the middle, it doesn't really happen like that. This is where the term "producer" becomes problematic because of the way it's defined. Creatively, Damon and Carlton call the shots; therefore they are the (creative) executive producers. However, it is Touchstone (now called ABC Studios) who pays for the show and is therefore the producing entity. (And ABC Studios is in turn owned by Walt Disney Corporation, which in the end is really the paying/producing entity.) So the big corporations, like Disney, Warner Bros., Paramount, CBS, Fox, NBC Universal, etc., are the 'producers' the writers guild is negotiating with. It kind of comes down to the suits versus the creative people.

"There is a producer's guild, and I'm not sure what the membership requirements are to join. Maybe someone like J. J. Abrams could join since technically he owns his own company and produces various shows. I don't know if it's a requirement to join the producer's guild and be a signatory to the various other guilds in order to employ WGA, DGA and SAG members. I know as a member of the WGA, you are not allowed to work for companies that are not signatories to the minimum basic agreement. And that's the agreement the WGA and the producer's guild is trying to hammer out now.

"So we'll see. SAG's contract is up at the end of April, which is why film production is starting to be affected. If a film can't start and finish by the end of April, companies are passing on it. Everything is being moved up because of that. So if the writers strike, I would imagine that the actors would strike, too. And that would be bad, too..."

Well, let's all cross our fingers and see what happens. Give me a beard and call me Jacko, and flash me forward to a future with no strikes and plenty of Lost on tap.